{"id":1107,"date":"2025-07-30T06:38:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-30T06:38:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=1107"},"modified":"2025-07-30T06:38:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-30T06:38:13","slug":"imf-upgrades-global-growth-forecast-as-tariffs-ease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=1107","title":{"rendered":"IMF upgrades global growth forecast as tariffs ease"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tom Espiner<\/span><\/p>\n
Business reporter, BBC News<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\"\"Getty Images<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted stronger global economic growth than it forecast in April in part due to some US tariffs on goods being softened.<\/p>\n

A surge in US imports as firms tried to beat impending higher import taxes and actions by some governments to boost growth bumped up its latest forecast.<\/p>\n

However, higher tariffs and more uncertainty could lead to weaker growth and slower economic activity, the IMF warned.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, UK growth is predicted to be 1.2% this year, and 1.4% in 2026, unchanged from revised\u00a0forecasts set out in May<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The UK is set to be the third fastest growing economy out the world’s so-called most advanced economies this year and the next, after US and Canada.<\/p>\n

The IMF, which is a group of 190 countries that work together to try to stabilise the global economy, said the upgrade to its global predictions included trade “front-loading” in recent months – referring to the rush of imports into the US.<\/p>\n

It forecast global growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, up from 2.8% and 3% in its April report.<\/p>\n

However, that is still below the 3.3% rate it had projected for both years in January, prior to US President Donald Trump taking office, and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7%.<\/p>\n

American firms rushed products into the country earlier this year to try to get ahead of new taxes on imports pledged by Trump.<\/p>\n

The IMF said this created risks that could add to any future economic shocks, including companies, having too much stock, making future imports less necessary.<\/p>\n

Also, firms may have to pay more to store goods, and there was also a risk of items becoming obsolete, it said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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What tariffs has Trump announced and why?<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said a modest decrease in trade tensions, however fragile, had contributed to the resilience of the global economy.<\/p>\n

However, he added: “The world economy is still hurting, and it’s going to continue hurting with tariffs at that level, even though it’s not as bad as it could have been.”<\/p>\n

He added that the boost from front-loading is going to “fade away” and it risked being a drag on economic activity in the second half of the year and into 2026.<\/p>\n

The IMF said the global pace of price rises was expected to fall to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.<\/p>\n

But it said inflation would probably remain above target in the US as import taxes were passed through to US consumers in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Trump’s trade policies, which he argues will boost US manufacturing and jobs, have upended global trade.<\/p>\n

He brought in a universal tariff of 10% on goods from nearly all countries from April and is threatening higher duties to be imposed from Friday.<\/p>\n

Far higher tariffs that the US and China have imposed on each other have been paused until 12 August, with the parties engaged in talks in Stockholm this week.<\/p>\n

Steeper tariffs that have been announced on products including cars, steel and other metals, pharmaceuticals and computer chips, have not been included in the IMF forecast.<\/p>\n

Trade deals with Japan and the EU have also not been included in the numbers.<\/p>\n

“We’ll have to see whether these deals are sticking, whether they’re unravelled, whether they’re followed by other changes in trade policy,” Mr Gourinchas said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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