Six months into his comeback term, Donald Trump has taken full ownership of the US economy. For better or worse, his party must now sell it to voters.<\/p>\n
The president has hailed the world\u2019s \u201chottest\u201d economy \u2013 and found others to blame for any wobbles. When Friday\u2019s jobs report showed a dramatic slowdown in hiring, he fired the head of the agency that published it. He\u2019s pinned some frustrations on his predecessor Joe Biden, and continues to berate the Federal Reserve for what he considers too-high interest rates.<\/p>\n
But for political purposes, his takeover has now been cemented \u2014 after passage of the \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill\u201d tax-and-spending law, and the latest phase of his global tariff rollout. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trumpeted the transition: \u201cThe Trump Economy has officially arrived,\u201d he posted on social media.<\/p>\n
The question is whether Americans like it. Next year Trump\u2019s economic record will be on the midterm ballot. Polls suggest voters are unhappy with the tariffs and tax plans \u2014 potentially giving Democrats an opening. The loss of GOP majorities in Congress could stall Trump\u2019s legislative agenda and expose him to impeachment efforts, as it did in his first term.<\/p>\n
The July employment figures, with job creation running at the weakest pace since the pandemic, were the latest indicator of a slowing economy. GDP shrank in the first quarter then rebounded in the second, as trade shifts skewed the numbers \u2014 but the overall pace in the first half of 2025 has been around half of last year\u2019s, with consumers hitting the brakes amid trade-war uncertainty. Still, unemployment remains low and so far there\u2019s been little sign of the tariff-led surge in prices that many pundits warn of.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe economy has held up remarkably well. Inflation has stayed relatively tame. But I do think there are storm clouds on the horizon,\u201d said Republican strategist Marc Short, who served in Trump\u2019s first administration. Many businesses have so far avoided passing on tariff costs to consumers, he said, but \u201cthe frog has been boiling all along.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump announced another round of tariff hikes this week, after months of often chaotic threats and reversals. Almost all US trading partners now face higher rates. The import taxes are bringing in billions in government revenue, but the longer-term economic impact remains unclear. Critics say US consumers and businesses will foot the bill.<\/p>\n
A recent Fox News poll shows that 62% of voters disapprove of Trump\u2019s handling of tariffs \u2013 while 58% are against the tax and spending bill, and 55% are unhappy with his overall handling of the economy.<\/p>\n
Voters are especially sensitive to the cost of living right now after prices skyrocketed under the Biden administration.<\/p>\n
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cited the risk that tariffs could rekindle inflation as one reason for holding interest rates steady \u2013 to Trump\u2019s fury. The president has campaigned aggressively for lower rates, hinting he may fire Powell before his term ends next May. On Friday he called on the Fed\u2019s board to \u201cassume control\u201d if Powell doesn\u2019t deliver a cut.<\/p>\n
There were some signs in June\u2019s price data that tariffs are starting to nudge prices higher for products like furniture and appliances. Still, the White House has a decent story to tell, according to Republican strategist Alex Conant. \u201cI would certainly take this economy over two or three years ago,\u201d he said. \u201cThere are two things that crush a president, inflation or unemployment. Right now both are low.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democrats see opportunities to go after Trump on his tax-and-spending legislation as well as his tariffs. The measure includes new breaks for tips and overtime pay \u2013 but also steep cuts to health programs that will hurt many low-income Americans. \u201cOur summer\u2019s all about Cancel The Cuts,\u201d former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on social media.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ll be looking at how House and Senate Republicans fare back home as they try to sell the recent budget bill,\u201d said Democratic strategist Jim Manley. \u201cIf you look at the polling, Democrats have to focus on his handling of the economy, because Americans are not happy.\u201d<\/p>\n
With tariffs largely in place, the White House in August plans to start promoting its tax law. State and local officials were at the White House this week getting briefed on the legislation, one official said. Another White House insider said Trump was expected to hit the road as part of the effort.<\/p>\n
\u2018Naysayers and Doomsayers\u2019<\/p>\n
Key parts of the bill like the tips exemption are \u201chuge immediate political winners,\u201d Conant said. \u201cThey should not only run on them, they should attack Democrats for opposing them.\u201d<\/p>\n
The law also extends tax cuts from Trump\u2019s first term, which had been due to expire. That\u2019s potentially the GOP\u2019s strongest argument to voters \u2014 \u201cif they\u2019d not done it, can you imagine what your tax bill would\u2019ve been like next April\u201d \u2014 according to veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey should be saying it, they\u2019re doing it to some degree,\u201d he told Bloomberg TV on Friday. \u201cBut it\u2019s not being heard.\u201d<\/p>\n
The White House maintains that the economy is booming. \u201cAll the naysayers and the doomsayers have been proven wrong,\u201d Communications Director Stephen Cheung said. And Trump is pulling other levers to improve GOP chances in the midterms.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s raised $236 million for his political operation in the first six months of 2025 \u2014 an unprecedented sum for a second-term president. The latest filings to the Federal Election Commission suggest most of that cash will be available for GOP House and Senate candidates.<\/p>\n
Trump is also urging Texas lawmakers to redraw the state\u2019s congressional map in an effort to win House districts that are more favorable to Republicans \u2014 a move Democrats have decried as a power grab.<\/p>\n
Midterm elections historically favor the party out of power \u2014 potentially giving a boost to Democrats, who were soundly beaten in 2024. But the opposition party is also struggling in the polls, and hasn\u2019t coalesced around an effective appeal to voters.<\/p>\n
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who has said he is considering a 2028 Democratic presidential bid, said the party has a clear economic message available for the midterms \u2013 which includes focusing on tariffs as an effective tax hike.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is all about accepting that Donald Trump owns this economy,\u201d Emanuel said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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