GARDEN GROVE, California \u2014 Republicans wield almost no power in California. But as a moribund state party gathered here over the weekend, it confronted an even grimmer reality now suddenly settling in: If the state\u00a0gerrymanders its congressional map, they\u2019ll practically be an endangered species.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a guillotine,” said Dale Quasny, a party delegate and real-estate broker from suburban Los Angeles County. \u201cWe won\u2019t be able to pick up the pieces and move forward. I mean, we were making a little headway, but this would be a catastrophe.\u201d<\/p>\n
Long locked out of power in Sacramento, one thing that Republicans here and nationally\u00a0have<\/em>\u00a0counted on for years from California was influence in U.S. House races \u2014 and the ability to help deliver Republican majorities by winning battleground races in the state\u2019s Central Valley and Orange County.<\/p>\n Now they’re on the brink of losing even that \u2014 a consequence of the redistricting wars that could cost the GOP as many as five House seats in California.<\/p>\n It is in part the Republican president, Donald Trump, who got them here. The GOP base in the state is as ardently MAGA as anywhere. But it was Trump\u2019s push for a Republican gerrymandering in deep-red Texas that sparked a national battle over redistricting, provoking Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic leaders to\u00a0respond with a Nov. 4 ballot measure\u00a0to gerrymander California\u2019s lines.<\/p>\n Even Republicans here, while chiding Newsom, were critical of Trump\u2019s redistricting effort. And as rank-and-file members of the GOP gathered in Orange County for their annual convention, the festivities were overshadowed by angst over the consequences of redistricting in a deep-blue state.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m certainly frustrated that our party\u2019s leadership has not been more proactive in trying to stop a redistricting war,\u201d said Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, whose seat in the Sacramento suburbs is at risk of being drawn out of existence. \u201cWe shouldn\u2019t be having mid-decade redistricting in any state.\u201d<\/p>\n If there is any bright spot for Republicans, it\u2019s that the left has had some difficulty recently with ballot measures. Voters last year rejected statewide proposals to ban forced prison labor, raise the minimum wage and expand rent control. [Non-partisan line-drawing is\u00a0overwhelmingly popular in California<\/ins>.] And if Republicans can defeat Newsom\u2019s redistricting effort, they would hand him a significant setback on the cusp of a likely 2028 presidential campaign.<\/p>\n Even internal polling from Democrats in the state Legislature suggests the GOP\u2019s messaging on the initiative could be effective with some voters, including that “two wrongs don’t make a right” and that it “undermines democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n While polling shared with Democrats in the state Assembly last week and obtained by POLITICO found a majority of voters support a redrawn map, it also suggests the plan could be vulnerable if Democrats don\u2019t turn out in November, with many independent voters skeptical of the concept of gerrymandering.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen you fight a fire with fire, you could get really burned,\u201d said James Gallagher, the Republican leader in the state Assembly.<\/p>\n Elsewhere across the country, Republicans have embraced redistricting as an opportunity to maintain the party\u2019s hold on the House in the midterms, not just in Texas, but Missouri, Indiana and other red states.<\/p>\n But at the GOP\u2019s convention in Orange County \u2014 the ancestral power and money center of conservatism in California \u2014 the sense of a party under siege was on full display, with hundreds of delegates and party activists cramming into a Hyatt meeting hall to strategize over how to defeat redistricting.<\/p>\n Here, Republican leaders were appealing to \u201cgood government,\u201d warning of the perils of single-party rule and extolling the virtues of California\u2019s nonpartisan citizen redistricting commission \u2014 a last-ditch effort to cling to their waning influence in the Golden State.<\/p>\n \u201cMore conversation leads to better laws,\u201d said Corrin Rankin, the state party chair and a Trump loyalist. \u201cThis is about Californians being able to choose who represents them.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, the GOP hasn\u2019t won a statewide elected office since 2006, when then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger secured a second term. And Democrats have held an impregnable supermajority in the statehouse for nearly a decade \u2014 leaving the GOP with little, if any, leverage to shape policy.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are already at a disadvantage in this state,\u201d said Carlos R. Hernandez, a delegate and social media consultant from San Francisco. \u201cWe have to act as the U.S. Army did when it landed on the beach at Normandy.\u201d<\/p>\n Some GOP delegates said they worry the state party isn\u2019t organized enough to fight Democrats, who have a tremendous fundraising advantage in the state.<\/p>\n John Turnacliff, chair of the Republican Party in Marin County, a deep-blue bastion across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco, said the state party is \u201cworking on a cohesive message\u201d and that \u201cit could come together in the next few weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n But he knows what the GOP is up against. He said the party needs to \u201cplay harder ball\u201d to prevent a defeat.<\/p>\n Sipping a cocktail at a reception on Friday night, he said, \u201cIt\u2019s a toss-up.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GARDEN GROVE, California \u2014 Republicans wield almost no power in California. 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