Donald Trump is about to embark on a tour of Asia that many hope will ease trade tensions with countries in the region and repair damaged ties with China. Trump will begin his trip on Sunday at a meeting of south-east Asian nations in Malaysia, before flying to Japan to meet its new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, early next week.<\/p>\n
But the most important stop on his itinerary will come at the end of the month, when he is expected to discuss trade, and possibly Taiwan, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in South Korea.<\/p>\n
Trump is\u00a0expected to meet Xi Jinping on Thursday next week, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. However, what they might talk about is generating more speculation than any other issue on the agenda at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, and Leavitt did not provide further details on Thursday night. There is a lot at stake, so pressure is building on both men to calm trade tensions that risk damaging the world\u2019s two biggest economies.<\/p>\n
Trump recently offered to lower\u00a0tariffs\u00a0on Chinese exports to the US but insisted that Beijing, too, had to make concessions, including resuming purchases of US soya beans, curbing the flow of ingredients used to make the opioid\u00a0fentanyl\u00a0\u2013 which has caused an overdose epidemic in America \u2013 and lifting restrictions on the export to the US of\u00a0rare earth minerals, which are needed to manufacture hi-tech products such as smartphones.<\/p>\n
A failure to lower trade tensions could further damage US industries that are already dealing with the fallout from Trump\u2019s tariffs. The US president was upbeat ahead of his meeting with Xi, telling reporters this week: \u201cI think we\u2019re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China \u2026 it\u2019s going to be fantastic for the entire world\u201d. Time is of the essence, however: Trump and Xi\u2019s meeting, which has yet to be confirmed by Beijing, will take place just as additional duties of 100% on Chinese exports to the US are due to go into effect.<\/p>\n
The leaders are also expected to discuss\u00a0Taiwan, amid concern that Trump could waver on Washington\u2019s support for the democratic, self-governing island under pressure from Xi. Beijing has reportedly asked the White House to state that it opposes Taiwan independence \u2013 a move that would delight China, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s attendance at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit in Kuala Lumpur comes at a critical time for the regional bloc, whose 10 members together exported goods worth $312bn to the US last year, compared with $142bn in 2017. The US is the region\u2019s biggest export destination and is reliant on Asean economies to keep its manufacturing supply chain moving.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s response to the widening trade deficit with South-east Asian countries was to\u00a0impose \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs\u00a0of between 10% and 40%, prompting Asean leaders to issue a joint statement voicing concern over \u201cAmerica first\u201d protectionism, saying Trump\u2019s measures \u201cpose significant risks to the multilateral trading system and the stability of global supply chains\u201d.<\/p>\n
Trump, who hasn\u2019t attended an Asean summit since 2017, will meet the bloc\u2019s leaders on Sunday, when discussions are expected to focus on Vietnam and Thailand, the two biggest contributors to the US trade deficit.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s stop-off in Malaysia could be motivated less by trade and more by a desire to position himself at the centre of any deal to end the\u00a0dispute\u00a0over un-demarcated points along Thailand and Cambodia\u2019s 817km (508-mile) land border.<\/p>\n
Malaysia\u00a0brokered a fragile ceasefire\u00a0after five days of clashes in July that left dozens of people dead and about 300,000 displaced, but the cause of the friction remains unresolved. Malaysia\u2019s foreign minister, Mohamad Hasan, recently told reporters that Trump was \u201ceager\u201d to see a peace accord signed during the summit \u2013 a breakthrough the US president would doubtless use to bolster his credentials as an international peacemaker.<\/p>\n
You can never say never with Donald Trump. At this stage a meeting looks unlikely, although with the prospect of an end to the Ukraine war quickly receding, Trump could be persuaded to turn his attention towards his \u201cfriend\u201d Kim and the intractable problem of North Korea\u2019s nuclear programme.<\/p>\n
CNN, citing anonymous sources, reported last weekend that US officials had discussed setting up a meeting during his visit to Asia, and Trump said in August that he would like to meet his North Korean counterpart \u201cin the appropriate future\u201d.<\/p>\n
But his three previous attempts to persuade Kim to rein in his nuclear ambitions \u2013 at two summits in 2018 and 2019, and during a quickly arranged visit to the\u00a0demilitarised zone\u00a0separating North and South Korea later that year \u2013 ended in failure. Since then, Kim has overseen steady improvements in the North\u2019s ballistic missile programme, sent more than 10,000 soldiers to\u00a0fight alongside Russian troops\u00a0in the Ukraine war, and\u00a0joined a loose anti-western alliance\u00a0with Beijing and Moscow.<\/p>\n
Days before Trump was due to arrive in South Korea for the Apec summit, the North launched two short-range missiles in what the regime described as a successful test of a new \u201chypersonic system\u201d aimed at strengthening its nuclear deterrent. Against that backdrop, now does not feel like the right time for Trump to take another gamble on Kim.<\/p>\n
Last month\u2019s\u00a0immigration raid by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents at a South Korean-owned electric battery plant under construction in Georgia sparked widespread anger in Seoul. About 300 South Korean nationals were detained, amid allegations that they were working at the factory illegally. The South Korean public is unlikely to forget the incident any time soon, but the country\u2019s president, Lee Jae Myung, has more pressing issues to take up with Trump in Gyeongju, where they are expected to meet on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
They include\u00a0concluding a summer agreement\u00a0to invest $350bn in the US economy that has been held up by disagreements over what form the South Korean investment should take. As part of the deal, the US agreed to lower tariffs on South Korean autos from 25% to 15%, the same level imposed on cars from Japan and the EU.<\/p>\n
Some observers have speculated that Lee, who\u00a0met Trump in the White House\u00a0in August, could leverage lingering fallout from the ICE debacle to win concessions from Trump. South Korean officials say they have made progress on trade in recent weeks, but conceded that \u201cone or two\u201d issues remain unresolved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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