Republicans won Tuesday\u2019s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms.<\/p>\n
Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps\u2019\u00a0roughly nine point win\u00a0marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. That double digit swing \u2014 on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November \u2014 could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.<\/p>\n
\u201cTonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,\u201d said one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. \u201cRepublicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democrat Aftyn Behn\u2019s\u00a0overperformance in the Tennessee special election\u00a0\u2014 which attracted millions of dollars in spending and national attention in its final days \u2014 continues a trend of concerning electoral results for the GOP. Earlier this year, Democrats saw\u00a0big overperformances in losses in other special elections in deep-red seats, and last month they swept a slate of critical off-year elections, including gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.<\/p>\n
In the wake of those victories, some Republicans urged the White House to\u00a0retool its political message\u00a0to better engage moderate voters and independents who broke for Trump in the presidential election.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m glad we won. But the GOP should not ignore the Virginia, New Jersey and Tennessee elections,\u201d Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who is retiring from his swingy Omaha-based district, said. \u201cWe must reach swing voters. America wants some normalcy.\u201d<\/p>\n
House Republican leadership had been preparing for Tuesday night\u2019s results. And while Speaker Mike Johnson leadership\u2019s team was bracing for a tighter-than-comfortable race, the single-digit margin was still a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans pulled out all the stops \u2014 including a Trump tele-rally and Johnson visit to the district \u2014 to rescue Van Epps in the final days.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was too close,\u201d said one House GOP leadership aide, who was also granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race.<\/p>\n
Trump himself projected confidence after the win, celebrating Van Epps\u2019 victory. \u201cThe Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!,\u201d\u00a0he wrote on Truth Social.<\/p>\n
But Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and appointee in the first Trump administration, said the single-digit margin for Van Epps continues the momentum Democrats already feel after the New Jersey and Virginia races.<\/p>\n
\u201cNone of it bodes well for the GOP in the midterms,\u201d Bartlett said. \u201cBeing an ostrich with your head in the sand on the key issues that matter most to Americans is not a strategy, or certainty not a winning one.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) directly tied Van Epps\u2019 underperformance to Democratic voters motivated by their disapproval of Trump, and he pleaded with Republicans to \u201cset out the alarm\u201d with Republican voters about the consequences of losing control of the House and the Senate.<\/p>\n
“It was dangerous. We could have lost this district because the people who showed up, many of them are the ones that are motivated by how much they dislike President Trump,\u201d Cruz said in a Fox News interview Tuesday evening.<\/p>\n
“In a year, it’s going to be a turnout election, and the left will show up,\u201d he added. \u201cHate is a powerful motivator.\u201d<\/p>\n
Turnout was extraordinarily high for a special election, pacing the 2022 midterms. Van Epps got roughly 90 percent of the number of raw votes Republican Mark Green \u2014 whose retirement triggered the special election \u2014 got that year, while Behn got over 115 percent of the 2022 Democrat nominee\u2019s total.<\/p>\n
One GOP consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, worried the result in Tennessee signals that Republican voters won\u2019t turn out in significant numbers for candidates other than Trump \u2014 a problem that has plagued Republicans in the past.<\/p>\n
“The Trump coalition is captivated by the force of his personality and willingness to disrupt the established order. There\u2019s not much interest in supporting other \u2018politicians\u2019 when Trump isn\u2019t on the ballot,\u201d the consultant said. \u201cThe winds are likely to blow against Republicans in federal races in 2026. People are rarely satisfied anymore and they\u2019re looking for someone to punish.”<\/p>\n
In a statement celebrating his victory on Tuesday, Van Epps acknowledged Trump\u2019s importance in the race.<\/p>\n
\u201cRunning from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Ahead of Tuesday\u2019s election, National Republican Congressional Committee chair Rep. Richard Hudson\u00a0sought to downplay the results\u00a0of an election that was projected to be uncharacteristically competitive, telling House Republicans in a closed-door meeting that special elections are unique. And after Tuesday\u2019s win, he celebrated Van Epps, saying in a statement \u201cno one is better positioned to take up the mantle and deliver results\u201d for Tennessee.<\/p>\n
But coming out of that meeting, one House Republican said that a narrow result could send shockwaves among the House GOP conference.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged,\u201d the House Republican said prior to polls closing on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Elena Schneider and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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