An El Ni\u00f1o event that could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather is expected to hit in the coming months, the United Nations weather agency warned on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean \u2014 has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance of persisting until November. The weather agency said warm ocean waters were driving the development of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe need to prepare for a potentially strong El Ni\u00f1o event, which will \u2060exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean,\u201d said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.<\/p>\n
\u201cExtreme heat alone \u200bis already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face, and an El Ni\u00f1o event could intensify the threat,\u201d she added. \u201cCommunities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on \u2060the fire \u200bof a warming world,\u201d said U.N. Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, who urged a shift away \u200bfrom fossil fuels toward renewable energy.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s less certain is how strong this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o will be. According to the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast, issued in May, the odds of a \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d occurring between November 2026 and January 2027 have risen from 25% to 37% \u2014 meaning that the U.S. and the world as a whole might be in for some wild weather later this year.<\/p>\n
Such an event could saddle the southern half of the United States with a much cooler and wetter winter and ultimately fuel what could turn out to be the hottest year on record.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what El Ni\u00f1o is \u2014 and how its rare \u201csuper\u201d variant could wreak havoc come winter.<\/p>\n
Normally, Pacific trade winds blow west across the equator, carrying warm South American water toward Asia. Cold water then \u201cupwells\u201d from the depths to replace the warmer surface water that\u2019s been pushed away.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climate cycle that disrupts this pattern. It\u2019s triggered by weaker-than-usual trade winds \u2014 winds that end up allowing much of that warm water to flow back toward the west coast of the Americas.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, that warmer water forces the Pacific jet stream \u2014 a high-altitude air current that acts as a 7,000-mile \u201cconveyor belt\u201d pushing storms east across the Pacific toward North America \u2014 to move south of its usual path, altering weather patterns across the U.S. and the globe.<\/p>\n