{"id":3350,"date":"2026-06-18T00:42:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T00:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=3350"},"modified":"2026-06-18T00:42:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T00:42:12","slug":"fed-dot-plot-almost-half-of-fomc-members-project-at-least-one-interest-rate-hike-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=3350","title":{"rendered":"Fed &#8216;dot plot&#8217;: Almost half of FOMC members project at least one interest rate hike this year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The Federal Reserve&#8217;s\u00a0latest &#8220;dot plot<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20260617b.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" data-ylk=\"slk:,&quot;;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:2;pos:1;\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;yLinkElementType&quot;:&quot;article_link&quot;}\" data-rapid_p=\"10\" data-y-link-id=\"166xffg05l3ix402tk3i\" data-v9y=\"1\">,&#8221;<\/a>\u00a0outlining policymakers&#8217; interest rate projections, revealed a sharp shift in central bankers&#8217; expectations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Not only are rate cuts almost surely off the table for the rest of the year, but there is also a sharply higher chance of a hike before the end of 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Nine policymakers who participated in the exercise projected at least one hike, with six even suggesting multiple hikes could be in the offing.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"rounded-lg\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/764737e470c308679dbfd25c5ff0f4d379cede8523e8f13870481cc3ce08cd49\/lightyear_networkapi\/resizefill_w960;quality_80;format_webp\/https:%2F%2Fd29szjachogqwa.cloudfront.net%2Fimages%2Fuser-uploaded%2Ffeddotplot-0617_7716.png\" alt=\"The Fed released a new dot plot following its June policy meeting.\" width=\"960\" height=\"726\" data-nimg=\"1\" \/><button class=\"group absolute bottom-0 size-full\" aria-label=\"View larger image\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\" data-rapid_p=\"11\" data-y-link-id=\"1by392d1b7hce91usl8y\" data-v9y=\"1\"><\/button><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<div>The Fed released a new dot plot following its June policy meeting.<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh did not participate in the dot plot, saying in a press conference that while he encouraged his colleagues to continue offering projections, &#8220;I, however, have refrained from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my long-held views.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"max-md:faux-bleed mb-4 bg-accent\/2 pb-5 md:invisible md:mb-0 md:h-0 md:overflow-hidden md:pb-0\">\n<div class=\"py-2 text-center text-xs uppercase\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-nowrap justify-center\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">That left the forecast from the other 18 members of the Federal Open Market Committee \u2014 who offered their projections anonymously \u2014 evenly split. Nine policymakers project higher rates, and the other nine suggested that interest rates will be unchanged or lower to end 2026.<\/p>\n<div class=\"mb-4\">\n<div class=\"rounded-xl bg-secondary p-5\">\n<div class=\"mb-4 flex items-center justify-between\">\n<div class=\"flex items-center gap-2\"><span class=\"text-base font-semibold text-primary\">Trending on Yahoo 100<\/span><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"mr-0.5 label-m-emphasized\">See full list<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"rounded-2xl bg-primary p-5\">\n<div class=\"mb-5 flex flex-col gap-4 lg:flex-row\">\n<div>Fed holds rates steady as hikes loom<\/p>\n<div class=\"flex items-center gap-2\">\n<div class=\"inline-flex items-center\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"flex shrink-0 items-center gap-2\">\n<div class=\"whitespace-nowrap text-tertiary\">Yahoo Finance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"text-purple-13 group-hover:underline lg:overflow-x-hidden lg:text-ellipsis lg:whitespace-nowrap\">Interest rates stay steady for now, but more Fed officials are signaling hikes later this year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The median forecast for interest rates at the end of 2027 remains unchanged at the current rate of 3.50% to 3.75%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The projection\u00a0is a sharp change from the outlook released in March<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcprojtabl20260318.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" data-ylk=\"slk:,;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:4;pos:1;\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;yLinkElementType&quot;:&quot;article_link&quot;}\" data-rapid_p=\"13\" data-y-link-id=\"1ipodp7139i4kf0t9wkg\" data-v9y=\"1\">,<\/a>\u00a0which had\u00a0maintained a median forecast for one rate cut in 2026\u00a0and two in total by the end of 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The new forward guidance comes after the central bank unanimously stayed put\u00a0this week, keeping interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, in Warsh&#8217;s first meeting at the helm.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"rounded-lg\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/f8e0b67f0ce0534e41fa4a4eda4ace1770d25f3ee6a1e7464c3d8baf5cff60a3\/lightyear_networkapi\/resizefill_w960;quality_80;format_webp\/https:%2F%2Fd29szjachogqwa.cloudfront.net%2Fimages%2F2026-06%2F0372a495-c4c4-4b7c-93f7-079da661fba0\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks to reporters during his first news conference since taking the helm at the central bank on June 17.  (Chip Somodevilla\/Getty Images)\" width=\"960\" height=\"640\" data-nimg=\"1\" \/><button class=\"group absolute bottom-0 size-full\" aria-label=\"View larger image\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\" data-rapid_p=\"16\" data-y-link-id=\"18oyvzb1gtdny41r0buv\" data-v9y=\"1\"><\/button><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<div>Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks to reporters during his first news conference since taking the helm at the central bank on June 17. (Chip Somodevilla\/Getty Images)<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The Fed on Wednesday also released a shorter policy statement, dropping language from March that signaled its next move would be to cut rates.<\/p>\n<div class=\"max-md:faux-bleed mb-4 bg-accent\/2 pb-5 md:invisible md:mb-0 md:h-0 md:overflow-hidden md:pb-0\">\n<div class=\"py-2 text-center text-xs uppercase\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-nowrap justify-center\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Warsh has signaled he is looking to\u00a0limit or phase out this quarterly exercise in forward guidance.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">&#8220;I don&#8217;t believe in forward guidance,&#8221; he told lawmakers during his confirmation. &#8220;The Fed tells the whole world what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be [and] then they hold on to those forecasts longer than they should.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative rounded-lg bg-primary shadow-elevation-2 dark:bg-tertiary\">\n<div class=\"left-0 top-0 h-2 w-full rounded-t-lg bg-gradient-to-br from-grape-jelly via-starfish to-blurple\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"p-4 pt-3\">\n<div class=\"flex items-start justify-between\">\n<h3 class=\"text-lg\/6 font-bold md:text-xl\/6\">How the Fed affects your money:<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"flex flex-col pt-4 md:flex-row\"><a class=\"aspect-video w-full pb-4 md:w-2\/5 md:pb-0\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/personal-finance\/banking\/article\/do-we-want-high-or-low-interest-rates-223031516.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-ylk=\"ct:story;elm:hdln;elmt:ct;g:9ba64a87-e4db-471e-8cc8-4523cd807e45;itc:0;sec:link-package-module;\" data-rapid_p=\"39\" data-v9y=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full rounded-lg object-cover\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/C06C2CE6DFF26C2BF7FC49CA0897D14079C9FC0A8B445AFE53D2DDBEBA94A35E\/subgraphmysterio\/resizefit_w496_h280;format_webp\/https:%2F%2Fd29szjachogqwa.cloudfront.net%2Fimages%2F2026-06%2Fddc759da-30e9-4e48-94ff-31081e58595d\" alt=\"Understanding the Fed's rate decisions: Do we want high or low interest rates\u200b?\" width=\"496\" height=\"280\" data-nimg=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul class=\"flex flex-col space-y-3 md:pl-4 w-full md:w-3\/5\">\n<li class=\"cursor-pointer border-b border-tertiary pb-3 text-sm font-medium last:border-none last:pb-0 hover:underline\">Understanding the Fed&#8217;s rate decisions: Do we want high or low interest rates\u200b?<\/li>\n<li class=\"cursor-pointer border-b border-tertiary pb-3 text-sm font-medium last:border-none last:pb-0 hover:underline\">How the Fed&#8217;s rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments<\/li>\n<li class=\"cursor-pointer border-b border-tertiary pb-3 text-sm font-medium last:border-none last:pb-0 hover:underline\">The Fed&#8217;s dot plot explained: What it means and why it&#8217;s important<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Warsh has suggested that he may seek to discontinue the tool, which was first created in 2012, but doing so would require the committee&#8217;s consensus. He announced on Wednesday that a new communications task force will review the Fed&#8217;s overall strategy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">&#8220;There will be a review about communications broadly, press conferences, dots, meetings, and the like,&#8221; Warsh said, adding that he saw his colleagues as being &#8220;very open about changes.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"max-md:faux-bleed mb-4 bg-accent\/2 pb-5 md:invisible md:mb-0 md:h-0 md:overflow-hidden md:pb-0\">\n<div class=\"py-2 text-center text-xs uppercase\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-nowrap justify-center\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">&#8220;I think this might be the last time we see the dot plot,&#8221; Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told Yahoo Finance, &#8220;which makes it harder for markets to decipher what the Fed is going to do.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"rounded-lg\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/3f09bd1e0c227e2529ebdb30e2278046571273301ee7ddc6d37b88fb50d18d81\/lightyear_networkapi\/resizefill_w720_h545;quality_80;format_webp\/https:%2F%2Fd29szjachogqwa.cloudfront.net%2Fimages%2Fuser-uploaded%2Ffeddotplot-0318-720_0865.png\" alt=\"The Fed's dot plot released in March painted a very different picture of the chances of rate hikes this year.\" width=\"720\" height=\"545\" data-nimg=\"1\" \/><button class=\"group absolute bottom-0 size-full\" aria-label=\"View larger image\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\" data-rapid_p=\"18\" data-y-link-id=\"0uozwbl1l0okwf06p1lk\" data-v9y=\"1\"><\/button><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<div>The Fed&#8217;s dot plot released in March painted a very different picture of the chances of rate hikes this year.<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\"><em>Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Federal Reserve&#8217;s\u00a0latest &#8220;dot plot,&#8221;\u00a0outlining policymakers&#8217; interest rate projections, revealed a sharp shift in central bankers&#8217; expectations. Not<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":3351,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88,7,48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-news","category-us"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3350"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3350\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3352,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3350\/revisions\/3352"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}