{"id":3817,"date":"2026-09-14T07:21:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T07:21:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=3817"},"modified":"2026-09-14T07:21:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T07:21:38","slug":"an-unprecedented-el-nino-sends-scientists-scrambling-for-answers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=3817","title":{"rendered":"An unprecedented El Ni\u00f1o sends scientists scrambling for answers"},"content":{"rendered":"

As a\u00a0potentially historic El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0develops along the equator, scientists see opportunities to explore the unanswered questions about these events that disrupt global weather.<\/p>\n

“It’s an\u00a0opportunity to learn more\u00a0about what El Ni\u00f1o is going to look like in a warmer climate,” said Emily Becker, research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.<\/p>\n

A Sept. 10 update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u00a0predicted a 75% chance that this El Ni\u00f1o could be “a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Ni\u00f1o events dating back to 1950.”<\/p>\n

Off Honolulu, NOAA recently launched\u00a0a fleet of four autonomous Saildrone Explorers on a mission\u00a0to the equatorial Pacific to study conditions in the region. Their mission was temporarily disrupted as Hurricane Lowell bore down on the Hawaiian Islands, and the drones had to be steered out of harm’s way before continuing on their journey.<\/p>\n

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Once the Saildrones, sometimes called robot surfboards, reach the El Ni\u00f1o region, where NOAA data shows sea surface temperatures are\u00a0hotter than they’ve ever been\u00a0on record for this time of year, the drones will spend the next five months collecting measurements.<\/p>\n

The results are expected to give scientists “a lot more information than we could see in any other way” about conditions in the El Ni\u00f1o region, said Meghan Cronin, a research oceanographer who leads the Ocean Climate Stations group at NOAA’s\u00a0Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.<\/p>\n

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A Saildrone Explorer SD-1090 departs from Honolulu on August 21, 2026 on a multi-month mission to the equatorial Pacific 1,500 miles to the south. Four Saildrones will capture ocean and atmospheric data for scientists at NOAA\u2019s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.<\/span>\u00a0(Provided by Saildrone\/NOAA)<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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A small fleet of Saildrones are headed into the El Ni\u00f1o region of the Pacific Ocean on a mission for NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory to learn more about conditions during the event.<\/span>\u00a0(Provided by NOAA\/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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A depiction of the instruments used in the Tropical Pacific Observing System to help monitor El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events.<\/span>\u00a0(Provided by NOAA\/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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This Saildrone, sometimes called a robot surfboard, was sent to intercept the northern edge of powerful Hurricane Beryl on July 2, about 115 miles south of Puerto Rico.<\/span>\u00a0(Provided by Saildrone and NOAA)<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Saildrones dodge hurricanes in Pacific on trip to explore El Ni\u00f1o<\/h2>\n
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A Saildrone Explorer SD-1090 departs from Honolulu on August 21, 2026 on a multi-month mission to the equatorial Pacific 1,500 miles to the south. Four Saildrones will capture ocean and atmospheric data for scientists at NOAA\u2019s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.<\/span> (Provided by Saildrone\/NOAA)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

A history of El Ni\u00f1o observations<\/h2>\n

Michael McPhaden, a researcher at the University of Washington, has studied El Ni\u00f1o for nearly 50 years. He retired as a senior scientist with NOAA in June but isn’t stepping away from his work yet, given the developing El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

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His first big El Ni\u00f1o arrived in 1982. “We had no observing system, we didn’t see it coming,” he said. “We had no forecast models. We didn’t actually realize it was happening until it was nearly at its peak.”<\/p>\n

At the time, the international science community was planning a 10-year program to study El Ni\u00f1o, and the surprise event was something of a “shock and embarrassment,” he said.<\/p>\n

Over a decade starting in 1984, the program built an array of ocean observing platforms and satellites. Today, Cronin said, that array has been redesigned and is providing a stream of data as this El Ni\u00f1o develops.<\/p>\n

It’s exciting work, she said. “We’ll really hopefully make some big progress on being able to improve our forecast of these events that have such a big impact on water resources, energy resources, agriculture, and our lives.”<\/p>\n

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