{"id":417,"date":"2025-06-23T10:12:25","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T10:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=417"},"modified":"2025-06-23T10:14:56","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T10:14:56","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-saber-rattling-ramps-up-following-us-attack-whether-the-key-waterway-will-close-is-less-clear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=417","title":{"rendered":"Strait of Hormuz saber-rattling ramps up following US attack. Whether the key waterway will close is less clear."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Iran threatens to shut down Strait of Hormuz after US strikes | LiveNOW from FOX\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/i91q0X1A4FA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Iran&#8217;s parliament pushed the nation to close the Strait of Hormuz,\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/irans-top-security-body-decide-hormuz-closure-press-tv-reports-2025-06-22\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-i13n=\"cpos:1;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:according to state media,;cpos:1;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"11\" data-v9y=\"1\">according to state media,<\/a>\u00a0but left the final decision to choke off the key waterway to Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council.<\/p>\n<p>Vice President JD Vance shot back Sunday that such an action &#8220;would be suicidal&#8221; for Iran as &#8220;their entire economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Yet the Islamic Republic appears to be a step closer to the unprecedented action that could\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp yahoo-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/finance\/news\/iran-hasnt-yet-made-the-strait-of-hormuz-central-in-its-fight-with-israel-heres-how-that-could-change-113025632.html\" data-i13n=\"cpos:2;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:spike prices around the world;cpos:2;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" data-rapid_p=\"12\" data-v9y=\"1\">spike prices around the world<\/a>, with about 20% of global oil and gas flowing through the narrow passageway connecting the Persian Gulf to the rest of the globe.<\/p>\n<p>It was just one front \u2014 but perhaps one with the greatest economic consequences \u2014 after President Trump ordered an attack on three of Iran&#8217;s nuclear sites and drew the US into the ongoing war.<\/p>\n<p>Some experts are skeptical Iran will ever follow through, as the country has threatened the strait multiple times over the years \u2014 but historically opted for less disruptive measures.<\/p>\n<p>In comments Saturday night, Trump described the move as a means to bring Iran to the negotiating table. But it immediately set off fears of additional violence and retaliation in the days ahead.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"caas-figure\">\n<div class=\"caas-figure-with-pb\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"caas-img-container caas-img-lightbox\" data-lightbox-src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/JTVL3yc9_7qWyfguRaDG9g--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI0MDA7aD0xNjAwO2NmPXdlYnA-\/https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/os\/creatr-uploaded-images\/2025-06\/a9a262a0-4f8d-11f0-9ffd-a38abf9d233b\"><span class=\"caas-img-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"caas-img caas-lazy has-preview caas-loaded\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/gnXp5eH7u2Txfqctx5e0Cg--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MDtjZj13ZWJw\/https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/os\/creatr-uploaded-images\/2025-06\/a9a262a0-4f8d-11f0-9ffd-a38abf9d233b\" alt=\"US President Donald Trump (R) arrives to address the nation, alongside US Vice President JD Vance (L), US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (2nd L) and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (C), from the White House in Washington, DC on June 21, 2025, following the announcement that the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran. President Donald Trump said June 21, 2025 the US military has carried out a \" data-caas-lazy-loading-init=\"1\" \/><button class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp caas-lightbox\" aria-label=\"View larger image\" data-ylk=\"sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;elm:expand;itc:1\" data-rapid_p=\"13\"><\/button><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"caption-wrapper caption-aligned-with-image\">\n<div class=\"caption-wrapper caption-aligned-with-image\"><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"caption-collapse\" data-id=\"m-0\">President Donald Trump arrives to address the nation on June 21 following the announcement that the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran. (CARLOS BARRIA\/POOL\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>For their part, Iranian leaders say any talks are on hold but haven&#8217;t outlined exactly how they are going to respond.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The US is not diplomatic and only understands the language of force and threats,&#8221; said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi,\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/en.mehrnews.com\/news\/233482\/FM-Araghchi-holding-presser-after-US-attack\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-i13n=\"cpos:3;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:according to Mehr News;cpos:3;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"14\">according to Mehr News<\/a>, the country&#8217;s semi-official news agency.<\/p>\n<p>Araqchi also reportedly avoided directly commenting on the strait, saying &#8220;a variety of options are available to Iran.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The action also comes after Iranian General Mohsen Rezaei, an Iranian leader who has a seat on the decision making Supreme National Security Council,\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/06\/22\/world\/middleeast\/iran-had-vowed-to-retaliate-now-it-faces-hard-choices.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-i13n=\"cpos:4;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:reportedly said on state television hours before the attack;cpos:4;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"15\" data-v9y=\"1\">reportedly said on state television hours before the attack<\/a>\u00a0that the country would move to close the strait if Trump entered the war.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"watching-for-a-worst-case-scenario\" class=\"caas-jump-link-heading\"><strong>Watching for a \u2018worst-case scenario\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Economists will be closely watching the strait because of global economic repercussions that would almost surely follow any disruptions there.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts at JPMorgan Chase (<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/JPM\" data-i13n=\"cpos:5;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:JPM;cpos:5;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"16\">JPM<\/a>) have called a blockage there a &#8220;worst-case scenario&#8221; and suggested the result could be global oil prices reaching $120 a barrel and pushing inflation in the US to 5%.<\/p>\n<p>But as Bloomberg energy columnist Javier Blas\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JavierBlas\/status\/1936775652532990100\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-i13n=\"cpos:6;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:re-emphasized over the weekend;cpos:6;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"17\">re-emphasized over the weekend<\/a>, it benefits Iran to &#8220;use low-ranking officials to talk about closing Hormuz,&#8221; because it sows instability. But it would actually damage Iran to follow through.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, closing the strait would be felt in Iran&#8217;s own oil sector and cut off a key revenue source for the country&#8217;s leaders.<\/p>\n<p>Iran uses the waterway for its own energy exports, which totaled over 1.3 million barrels of oil a day 2023\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/en\/indicator\/iran\/crude-oil-exports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-i13n=\"cpos:7;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:according to CEIC;cpos:7;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"18\" data-v9y=\"1\">according to CEIC<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As Noam Raydan, who studies energy and maritime risks at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy,\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp yahoo-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/finance\/news\/iran-hasnt-yet-made-the-strait-of-hormuz-central-in-its-fight-with-israel-heres-how-that-could-change-113025632.html\" data-i13n=\"cpos:8;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:put it to Yahoo Finance last week before the attacks;cpos:8;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" data-rapid_p=\"19\" data-v9y=\"1\">put it to Yahoo Finance last week before the attacks<\/a>: &#8220;If its oil production and terminals are badly damaged, we can then seriously consider the possibility of Tehran shutting the strait.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>So far, that doesn&#8217;t appear to be the case, with Israel striking one oil refinery in Tehran but so far apparently leaving the country&#8217;s oil infrastructure largely in place.<\/p>\n<p>Most Iranian oil\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/energy-oil\/if-irans-oil-is-cut-off-china-will-pay-the-price-95b9c7e1?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAgGDIR5Z7W4PXMmGWfCQyKWoyTTgwbUk5MzQKIC0221h4S9p1_Ur0C-N3E86_c%3D&amp;gaa_ts=68583904&amp;gaa_sig=97rjlJvxahwWWsRZZGbNJPGChUp93-MLFYBVqWq04pzvQMoilusQRCewamR-FwwqjRsRnFcpoqXMJ5iJSkzeYw%3D%3D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-i13n=\"cpos:9;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:flows to China;cpos:9;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"20\" data-v9y=\"1\">flows to China<\/a>\u00a0but the closing the Strait of Hormuz would jeopardize a wider array of oil and natural gas sources with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and others using that waterway.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"caas-figure\">\n<div class=\"caas-figure-with-pb\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"caas-img-container caas-img-lightbox\" data-lightbox-src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/hkhDhjYW.9GfTCHwjHJagw--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI0MDA7aD0xNjAwO2NmPXdlYnA-\/https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/os\/creatr-uploaded-images\/2025-06\/714ad670-49df-11f0-bfe7-17447c985aea\"><span class=\"caas-img-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"caas-img caas-lazy has-preview caas-loaded\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/pg3fQ8VaCIotNlUlFdlL5w--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MDtjZj13ZWJw\/https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/os\/creatr-uploaded-images\/2025-06\/714ad670-49df-11f0-bfe7-17447c985aea\" alt=\"A plume of heavy smoke and fire rise from an oil refinery in southern Tehran, after it was hit in an overnight Israeli strike, on June 15, 2025. Israel pressed its intense bombardment campaign on Iran on June 15, striking a defence facility and fuel depots as the two arch foes kept up their most intense confrontation in history. (Photo by ATTA KENARE \/ AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE\/AFP via Getty Images) \" data-caas-lazy-loading-init=\"1\" \/><button class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp caas-lightbox\" aria-label=\"View larger image\" data-ylk=\"sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;elm:expand;itc:1\" data-rapid_p=\"21\"><\/button><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"caption-wrapper caption-aligned-with-image\">\n<div class=\"caption-wrapper caption-aligned-with-image\"><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"caption-collapse\" data-id=\"m-1\">Heavy smoke and fire are seen from an oil refinery in southern Tehran after a Israeli strike on June 15. (ATTA KENARE\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The overall landscape has led Trump administration to express tempered confidence Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz option is one that won&#8217;t be taken.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That would be suicidal,&#8221; Vance\u00a0<a class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/meet-the-press\/video\/vice-pres-vance-says-us-has-substantially-delayed-iran-s-nuclear-weapon-program-full-interview-242050117543\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-i13n=\"cpos:10;pos:1\" data-ylk=\"slk:said Sunday on NBC;cpos:10;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-rapid_p=\"22\" data-v9y=\"1\">said Sunday on NBC<\/a>\u00a0of Iran taking that step.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If they want to destroy their own economy and cause disruptions in the world, I think that would be their decision,&#8221; he acknowledged &#8220;but why would they do that? I don&#8217;t think it makes any sense.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Secretary of State Marco Rubio added on Fox News that Iran closing the strait would be &#8220;another terrible mistake&#8230;and we retain options to deal with that.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iran&#8217;s parliament pushed the nation to close the Strait of Hormuz,\u00a0according to state media,\u00a0but left the final decision<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":435,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,4,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-politics","category-world-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=417"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":436,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417\/revisions\/436"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}