{"id":713,"date":"2025-07-06T15:35:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T15:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=713"},"modified":"2025-07-06T15:39:22","modified_gmt":"2025-07-06T15:39:22","slug":"how-trumps-megabill-could-slam-the-job-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/?p=713","title":{"rendered":"How Trump&#8217;s megabill could slam the job market"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"w-full\">\n<div class=\"pt-5 sm:pt-[1.875rem]\" data-testid=\"article-lead-summary\">\n<div class=\"mx-auto\">\n<h1 class=\"mt-2 text-2xl font-bold leading-[1.12] tracking-[-.02rem] sm:leading-none sm:tracking-[-.05rem] md:text-[1.75rem] lg:text-[2.5rem]\" data-testid=\"title\">How Trump&#8217;s megabill could slam the job market<\/h1>\n<p class=\"mb-4 mt-2 text-sm leading-[1.4] text-gray-vulcan-44 md:text-base md:leading-[1.4] font-text\">The foreign-born workforce contracted in June, marking the third straight month it has fallen. The tax bill contains billions more in funds for border control.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"w-full\">\n<aside class=\"order-2 mx-auto mt-[0.9375rem] block text-left md:mt-[1.875rem]\">\n<figure class=\"\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/280\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 280w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/560\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/726\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 726w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/1452\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 1452w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/959\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 959w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/1918\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 1918w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/888\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 888w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/1776\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 1776w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/630\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/1260\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg 1260w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(max-width: 320px) 280px, (max-width: 766px) 726px, (max-width: 1019px) 959px, (max-width: 1278px) 888px, (min-width: 1279px) 630px\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aspect-image-3x2 w-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/resize\/630\/quality\/90\/format\/webp?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F03%2F21%2Fbb0bb8c74d978723fdd47ba938af%2Ftrump-immigration-83077.jpg\" alt=\"President Donald Trump tours &amp;quot;Alligator Alcatraz,&amp;quot; a new migrant detention facility at Dade-Collier Training and Transition facility in Florida. \" \/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mx-auto max-w-[630px]\">\n<div class=\"grid grid-cols-1 pt-2.5 md:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] lg:grid-cols-1 mb-5 md:mb-[1.875rem]\">\n<div class=\"col-span-full row-start-1 md:col-span-2\">\n<p class=\"mb-2.5 border-b border-gray-200 pb-2.5 text-sm leading-[1.2] text-gray-vulcan-44 md:pt-0 lg:pt-0\" data-testid=\"site-caption\">President Donald Trump tours &#8220;Alligator Alcatraz,&#8221; a new migrant detention facility at Dade-Collier Training and Transition facility on July 1, 2025, in Ochopee, Florida. | Evan<\/p>\n<p class=\"is-first-paragraph font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">The solid monthly job gains that the White House is touting as the \u201c<a class=\"js-tealium-tracking\" href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/articles\/2025\/06\/trump-effect-higher-pay-for-american-workers\/\" data-tracking=\"mpos=center&amp;mid=ar_body&amp;lindex=4&amp;lcol=\">Trump effect<\/a>\u201d are in danger of fading as the president\u2019s hardline immigration policies chip away at the supply of foreign-born workers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">That risk is rising because the GOP\u2019s \u201cBig, Beautiful Bill\u201d contains $150 billion to ramp up border security and deportations.<\/p>\n<div class=\"mx-auto max-w-[1350px] gap-x-[30px] px-5 text-center sm:px-[30px] md:grid md:grid-cols-[1fr,300px] lg:grid-cols-[300px,1fr,300px]\">\n<div class=\"mx-auto w-full max-w-[630px] text-left !w-full\">\n<div class=\"article-lead\">\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"mx-auto max-w-[630px]\">\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">The foreign-born workforce contracted again in June, the government reported Thursday, marking the third straight month it has fallen even as employers <a class=\"js-tealium-tracking\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/07\/03\/economy-jobs-powell-fed-trump-immigration-tariffs-00438231\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-tracking=\"mpos=center&amp;mid=ar_body&amp;lindex=5&amp;lcol=\" aria-label=\"Opens in a new window\">defied expectations and added 147,000 overall jobs<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mx-auto max-w-[1350px] gap-x-[30px] px-5 text-center sm:px-[30px] md:grid md:grid-cols-[1fr,300px] lg:grid-cols-[300px,1fr,300px]\">\n<div class=\"mx-auto w-full max-w-[630px] text-left\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mx-auto w-full max-w-[630px] text-left\">\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">White House officials insist that the decline won\u2019t dent the economy because the megabillwill encourage more Americans to enter the workforce. Many economists disagree, predicting that the immigration crackdown will hurt the labor market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">Now, as President Donald Trump\u2019s deportations start to show up in the economic data, we\u2019re about to find out who\u2019s right.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">Economists believe that the labor market\u2019s breakeven rate \u2014 the number of jobs that businesses must add to keep unemployment in check \u2014 will decline with the abrupt end of the Biden-era immigration surge. Even if the jobless rate stays near its current level of 4.1 percent, a slowdown in payroll growth would pose a hurdle for the economy, they say. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is among those recently warning that economic growth could diminish.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">\u201cIf the job market slows, then we should expect economic growth to follow,\u201d said Daniel Zhao, the lead economist and senior manager at Glassdoor\u2019s economic research team.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">Trump and top administration officials attribute the labor market\u2019s expansion under President Joe Biden to an unchecked flow of undocumented immigrants across the Southern border. Trump has made reversing that tide a centerpiece of his second term, ordering politically explosive Immigration and Customs Enforcement workplace raids and planning new detention centers and more border control. On Tuesday, he toured a Florida holding facility for undocumented immigrants dubbed \u201cAlligator Alcatraz.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-lg leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-v-5d7f864a=\"\">\u201cWe need more agents to arrest them. We need more beds to hold them. And we need more transportation contracts to move them out of the country,\u201d Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=C1AG8av-HW8\">border czar, Tom Homan,<\/a> said earlier this week. \u201cThis bill is going to give us more resources to do more of the great things the Trump administration is doing.\u201dMajor elements of the president\u2019s tax bill, including eliminating taxes on overtime, are intended to boost the supply of available labor, Miran added. And the labor pool could also see gains if the legislation pushes unemployed \u2014 or underemployed \u2014 individuals on Medicaid back into the workforce.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How Trump&#8217;s megabill could slam the job market The foreign-born workforce contracted in June, marking the third straight<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":714,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,29,7,4,32,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-autos","category-international-news","category-news","category-politics","category-world","category-world-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=713"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":717,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713\/revisions\/717"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.cedritech.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}