A Monday meeting in the Oval Office doesn’t appear to have lessened the chances of a partial government shutdown, with commentary from both sides into Tuesday suggesting no deal is in the immediate offing.
“We have very large differences,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said after he left the Oval Office.
Vice President JD Vance went further, saying in a separate appearance: “I think we’re headed to a shutdown.”
President Trump himself followed up Tuesday morning, saying a shutdown would be the Democrats’ fault and that he is looking to fire “a lot” of federal workers if a stoppage goes forward.
The lack of progress — as well as a drumbeat of releases from federal agencies about how they will furlough workers during a stoppage — is boosting the odds of the first government shutdown since 2019. It is set to begin Wednesday morning at 12:01 a.m. ET without a last-minute deal.
Such a stalemate could produce unpredictable economic impacts, some of which could be felt quickly and others that could grow with each passing day.
Some effects are already in evidence in both currency and gold markets, but much of the market focus for now is on the government’s economic data, which will cease being published if a stoppage goes forward.
That comes as both investors and central bankers at the Federal Reserve are looking for all the information they can get about the slowing labor market and persistent inflation ahead of another Fed policy meeting at the end of October.
“It’s important to understand the U.S. economy is already on a knife’s edge — the labor market has softened and inflation has risen,” Michael Linden of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth noted this week. “Adding a government shutdown to the mix certainly won’t help.”
One new and unpredictable feature surrounding this potential shutdown is a Trump administration promise to consider mass firings if there is no deal. Details are scarce so far on how deep any permanent cuts could go, even as Trump has repeatedly promised such moves are in the offing.
The country could also wrestle with a host of familiar effects experienced during previous shutdowns, from Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents being forced to work without pay to national parks being closed to visitors.
Deliberations remain ongoing — and last-minute votes in the Senate are scheduled for Tuesday afternoon — but with expectations low that they amount to much more than a repeat of the failed efforts earlier this month.
Here is a closer look at three areas where a shutdown could be noticed quickly:
Delayed (and then potentially less fulsome) economic data
A contingency plan released Monday by the Department of Labor laid out how its Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would “completely cease operations” during a stoppage.
The agency would temporarily go from a workforce of 2,055 to just one full-time employee.
The agency’s fulsome calendar of economic releases would grind to a stop — starting with a jobs report scheduled for release this Friday. The already gathered data would then be released, but it might be withheld during a shutdown.
And the longer a stoppage goes on, the more future data could be impacted, with “all active data collection activities” ceasing, per the BLS plan.
That raises the prospect that October’s key economic data — from the Consumer Price Index to a reading on the labor market — may not only be delayed but also be less complete in a way that could be felt even after the shutdown has ended.
Other key sources of government economic data from the Commerce Department, which oversees both the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, could also be impacted.
The Commerce Department’s plan, released this week, outlines a similar cessation of all economic data, including quarterly GDP numbers and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The length of any government stoppage may determine the effects on both the data and the larger economy.
Experts have said that significant economic effects are quickly reversed during at least a limited shutdown, which often sees government spending cease but then quickly catch up when the government reopens.
Fear of new layoffs among the government’s workforce
Perhaps the most novel feature of a potential shutdown surrounds a plan to use the stoppage to not only furlough government workers but also permanently remove at least some of them from their positions.
A directive circulated last week from Trump’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed agencies “to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force (RIF) notices,” adding that the possible permanent cuts would be in areas “not consistent with the president’s priorities.”
The idea is for these agencies to eventually reopen and retain “the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions.”
Such a move would represent a sharp departure from past shutdown procedures, where a wide swath of government workers were temporarily furloughed but with the promise of not only a return to work but also back pay after the shutdown ends.
It remains to be seen how aggressively various agencies will take up the directive, but the president himself told NBC News over the weekend, “We are going to cut a lot of the people that … we’re able to cut on a permanent basis” if the government shuts down.
It was a plan that Trump then repeated Tuesday morning, even as the government contingency plans offered little insight into specifics.
A Bloomberg review of contingency plans for two-thirds of the federal workforce found plans for more than 400,000 employees to be sent home as nonessential and temporarily furloughed, but almost no references to any sort of permanent staffing reductions.
Uncertainty at airports and other scattered shutdown effects
A shutdown will leave government employees, including military personnel, temporarily without a paycheck, but many will be asked to continue reporting to work.
A perennial public-facing example of this dynamic is at airports, with both air traffic controllers and TSA agents expected to continue working even during a shutdown.
Past shutdowns have seen higher-than-normal unscheduled absences — especially among the lower-paid TSA workforce — leading to some disruptions.
In a recent Yahoo Finance appearance, Breeze Airways founder and CEO David Neeleman said that air travel will be “fine” during a shutdown, adding, “Good thing it’s not a really peak travel time of year.”
Other prominent closures in past shutdowns have been national parks, with everything from scenic natural areas to major tourist attractions shuttered.
The IRS — at least for a few days — plans to keep all its employees working according to their plan. Regulators overseeing financial markets will be cut back.
The most recently available plan from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lays out a plan to keep on hand only an “extremely limited number of staff members available to respond to emergency situations.”
Obtaining a passport will still be possible, but historically, it has been more difficult, with many government buildings closed.
After Monday’s Oval Office meeting, House Speaker Mike Johnson said, “This is serious business,” and ticked through the list of agencies that would face challenges, from FEMA to food assistance programs, adding, “All that which is funded by the government would stop.”
Meanwhile, many services would remain open.
Medicare benefits and Social Security checks will continue to be sent out. And a number of entities — including the Federal Reserve — are expected to see minimal effects as they aren’t primarily funded through Congress’ annual appropriations process.
The nation’s public schools — funded at the local level — will also remain open, although some federally funded programs such as Head Start have historically shuttered during stoppages.
Finally, the mail will still be delivered, as the US Postal Service is largely self-funded through the sale of stamps.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
